The Morning Line: Nashville, Day 2

Round 3 Matchups:

Joao Ricardo Vieira on 96 Fire Rock VS. Shane Proctor on 018 Ranga:

Vieira has a lot of experience on Fire Rock. He’s been on him four times and ridden him in their latest two meetings, both from this season. Fire Rock has a lot of talent, and he’s capable of throwing any guy here on any given day, but he’s a great draw for Vieira because of their history. Vieira may need a qualified ride here to advance, because Ranga is a pretty good fit for Proctor. Ranga likes to go to the right, and that will be into Proctor’s hand. The key in this matchup is that Ranga likes to reverse his spin late in the ride, and Proctor will have to deal with that.

Michael Lane on 08 Rectify VS. Fabiano Vieira on 023 Rusty:

Lane is up against a bull that’s 5-0 against right-handed riders and 9-1 overall. He has beaten righties Matt Triplett, Ben Jones, Sean Willingham, and Zane Lambert this season. On top of that, Lane is up against Fabiano Vieira on a bull that might fit him pretty well. Rusty can go either way, but he can be smooth, and he’s been ridden more often than not when he has faced the better riders. Vieira has an advantage here, but Lane has done surprisingly well so far.

J.B. Mauney on 01 Cash Ya Out VS. Stetson Lawrence on 1275 Joe the Grinder:

Lawrence looked really good last night, and he’s got a really good bull tonight, but it’s a bull that’s going to go away from his hand with a lot of gas. Joe the Grinder has been ridden six times in his career, but only one of those was by a lefty. Mauney got thumped a little last night, and he looked mortal, but he’s likely to get better here. This bull can go either way, but he has good timing either way, and that is all Mauney really needs to shine. Two very nice bulls here, but Mauney probably has a slight advantage.

Matt Triplett on 914 Say I Won’t Playboy VS. J.W. Harris on 3028 Stuntin’ Like My Daddy:

Here we have two right-handed riders on two bulls that are statistically better for right handers. Compared to bulls in the Mauney and Lawrence match, both these bulls are a little wilder, have less even timing and are harder to ride. They have both been pretty good at unseating the top riders, and both Triplett and Harris will have their hands full. Neither guy has a clear advantage here.

Kaique Pacheco on 06 Loco Freak VS. Tanner Byrne on 1104 Red Cat:

Both these bulls are relatively new. Loco Freak was ridden here in Nashville last year for 85.75 points by Matt Triplett. Red Cat is making his BFTS debut, but he was ridden at a Touring Pro Division event last year for 88 points. Like the previous bracket, neither of these guys really have an edge in this pairing. Both these guys got a score in Round 2 as well, but Pacheco has a little more momentum coming in, because he’s been riding well at recent events.

Round 4 and Beyond:

There are two items worth noting beyond Round 3. One, the second chance bracket will be hard on whomever comes out of it. Those guys still have a chance to win the event, but it will be a tough route to take, and will wear down the rider somewhat. Therefore, the guy who wins Bracket A has an advantage in the semifinal match on that side.

Two, in Bracket C, every rider still alive is right-handed. Whoever wins that bracket will face King Buck — a bull that has been easy pickings for righties. So the winner of Bracket C will have a slight advantage in the semifinal match on the right side. But, if a right-handed guy wins that match he will have Percolator in the final round, and Percolator is much better for left-handed guys.

So, if Shane Proctor can fight his way out of Bracket A, he’s got the best route to win the event, because the final bull, Sasquatch, goes to the right, and there’s a decent chance he will be facing a right-handed rider on Percolator.


Follow Slade Long on Twitter @Probullstats

© 2015 PBR Inc. All rights reserved.