By: Slade Long
January 15, 2016
New York City Round 1
The bulls in the opening round here should have more spark than we saw from the Round 1 bulls in Chicago last week. A lot of the riders are matched up well, though, so we should see some good rides tonight.
Douglas Duncan on 017 Crazy Horse:
Duncan has drawn perfectly in every round this season so far. Yes, he bucked off in the short round last week, but that was not a drawn round, and although Brown Sugar isn’t the best fit for him, you can’t say he’s a bad choice. I expect every bull rider with any sense would love to have him. Duncan’s luck of the draw is still good here. This bull is comparable to both long round bulls Duncan had last week in that he’s very honest and has great timing. He’s also given up five rides in seven BFTS outs, and Duncan should easily make it six.
Lachlan Richardson on 107 Come On Baby:
Richardson has a knack for winning just enough to stay on tour. He has one of the lowest riding percentages on tour, particularly for a guy who has been to as many Built Ford Tough Series events as he has. He’s a statistical underdog against most of the bulls he faces at this level, but he’s not an underdog tonight. This is a bull he should ride. Most guys here would be favored against him. He does have a little speed and he can drift around in the spin some, but for a right-handed rider he’s really an entry-level BFTS bull. He’s probably a bit more of a challenge for a lefty, because he likes to go to the right.
Kaique Pacheco on 27 Gentleman Jim:
Pacheco doesn’t really need a bull that fits him or even a bull that’s particularly rider- friendly, but he’s got both here. Gentleman Jim isn’t overly strong, doesn’t really have tricks, and he has pretty even timing as well. He’s not going to challenge Pacheco, and this should be a slam dunk. Of the guys who are going to compete in the 15/15 round tonight, Pacheco drew the best pair of bulls overall. Bull riding at this level is more about individual matchups than whether the rider is hot or cold. If a rider has a pretty quiet weekend, it is usually because he wasn’t matched up well. Pacheco will get some attention tonight because he is matched up perfectly.
Stormy Wing on S02 Sasquatch:
This is a really good bull that we’ve seen in short rounds on numerous occasions. He’s good enough to win the round on, he’s got a style that bull riders should like, but he isn’t ridden very often. In fact, he’s never given up a ride to a left-handed rider. He’s 20-0 in his career against them. So, for Wing to get the 87-89 points this bull has to offer, he’ll have to pull off something J.B. Mauney and quite a few other high-level left-handed guys have failed to do. Mauney has had this bull twice and has come down twice.
Markus Mariluch on 09 Legal Tender:
It’s good to see Mariluch back on tour. He didn’t draw that well in Chicago, but he’s got a good bull here. This bull produces a lot of interesting matchups. His style is that he likes to back up while spinning and he’ll try to get the rider tilted forward and ultimately down on his head. If you pay attention to the analysts on TV, you will often hear that what went wrong with a ride was that the rider failed to get his upper body out over the front of the bull one or more jumps. It’s a common theme because it’s hard to do on many bulls. On this bull and bulls with this kind of style it isn’t a factor because he will help you get there. The trick is not to go too far. The game plan for a bull that backs up is to sit up and look pretty, and that’s not nearly as hard to do. Legal Tender isn’t a pushover — he does throw off a lot of talented riders. But, every rider has a good chance on a bull like this.
Robson Aragao on 954 Machinery Auctioneer’s Little Joe:
Mauney won a round on Joe last week in Chicago, and Aragao has ridden him before as well. He’s not very easy to ride. He can really stretch out to full length while spinning, and he can get a guy down inside the spin sometimes. He’s a little deceptive, and there’s more to him than meets the eye. Aragao may get the best of him again, but it’s far from guaranteed.
Silvano Alves on 023 Rusty:
This is an interesting matchup because while we see Alves ride a lot of bulls, we don’t often see him make big scoring rides. This is a bull that can produce those round wins at times, but the odds may be against that happening here. About 65 percent of the bulls that Alves tries, end up under-performing with him. He pulls a tight rope, and typically spends a long time in the chute and most observers believe this takes something out of the bulls he gets on. Rusty is a solidly built bull with a strength-oriented style, and he may do well here, but we’ve reached the point where it would be surprising if a bull had his best day with Alves aboard. Over the course of a season, this ends up costing Alves a lot of points, and if he could manage to get better performance out of his bulls he would have a much easier path to a World Championship.
Kasey Hayes on 1R6 Louisville Slugger:
Hayes should be a huge favorite here. Slugger is very weak against left-handed riders. He’s 1-4 against them. Hayes is one of the best on bulls that go into his hand. He’s not just good at it, he’s great. He can ride some of the rankest bulls around when they go into his hand.
Eduardo Aparecido on 957 Walking Through White:
Aparecido is coming off a good year on the Built Ford Tough Series, and he won a boatload of money at the World Finals. He missed last week’s event because of travel issues, so this will be his first bull of the season. He’s likely to start his year off with a good ride too, because this bull should spin into his hand with good timing, and no surprises. Aparecido should have an easy time with him.
J.B. Mauney on 1104 Blue Hurricane:
Lindomar Lino turned in 86 points on this bull at a December Touring Pro Division event, and if he has the same trip here, he has no chance of throwing Mauney off. Blue Hurricane is making his big league debut here — he has only been to Touring Pro events so far, and he hasn’t faced a lot of top riders. Mauney will be the best rider he’s faced in his career.
Follow Slade Long on Twitter @Probullstats
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