The Morning Line: St. Louis, Day 2

By: Slade Long
February 25, 2017

ST. LOUIS – Tonight’s round is filled with solid, veteran bulls and there are some promising matchups here. But like last night, some of them may not quite achieve their potential. Eleven guys got out of Round 1 with a score, and some of those guys look set to get another one, while some of the others will have a tougher time in round two.

Brady Sims on 06 Swashbuckler:

Sims has drawn well here so far. He came up just short on what would have been an outstanding ride last night, and he’s got a very similar bull here in Round 2. Swashbuckler should be around to the left, and where Sims’ first round bull could have variable amounts of up and down through the ride, this one may take a step forward in the spin occasionally. This is a challenging draw, but that’s what is needed to win.

Dener Barbosa on 37 U-Joint:

If you watched the PBR LIVE broadcast last night, you saw Barbosa turn down a re-ride, and keep a 73.5 point score. You also got to see Cody Lambert’s unfiltered opinion of that decision, which was essentially that it was stupid to turn down the re-ride. Here’s why Lambert is right.

In Lambert’s day, drawing a bull you could win on was one of the hardest things to do. That’s really no less true today. There are more quality bulls around now, but you still need that little something extra than not every bull has to win a round, and to win an event you need that “special” bull at least once during the event, and really twice during a four header such as this event. Obviously the bull Barbosa rode last night wasn’t special, and this bull he has tonight isn’t either, but Handsome Jeff is, and that is the bull that Barbosa turned down. What his decision says is that he’s not here expecting to win or even stay on. He’s hoping to survive and maybe place in the aggregate if everyone else fails enough this weekend. And that is quite a statement from someone with the kind of talent that Barbosa has.

In the context of a World Championship race, it doesn’t matter at all whether a guy takes a re-ride here or there or turns it down, because re-ride decisions will comprise a tiny percentage of that riders activity over the whole season. In spite of popular opinion, re-ride decisions had nothing to do with Silvano Alves winning any titles. Where re-ride decisions do matter is in the context of a round or an event, and turning down a re-ride leaves riders with no chance of winning the round, and next to no chance of winning the event. It’s also an indicator of the rider’s mental state, and when a rider doesn’t think he can win the matchups he needs to win to be successful at this level, then as Lambert said, he would have been better off staying home, healing up, and coming back when he does think he can do it.

Kaique Pacheco on 164X Otis:

Pacheco should easily pick up a second score here on this bull. He’s ridden him before – in Billings, Montana, last season. On top of that, Otis is just an all-around good bull to ride, especially for right-handed riders. He has a pattern and style a lot like Smooth Operator, but he isn’t as strong, and riders can handle him much easier.

Fabiano Vieira on CK217 Insane Hurricane:

This bull has just three outs on record, and two of them were qualified rides. However, the other one was Fabiano Vieira. He bucked off this bull in Kansas City just a couple of weeks ago. Vieira is the kind of rider who is not likely to get bucked off the same long round caliber bull twice in a row though, so give him the edge here.

Marco Eguchi on E5 Big Cat:

Eguchi did not look good last night, and it’s hard to say whether it was just a mental slip or not.  He’s been riding extremely well this year. This is the bull to have in this round. He goes to the left like the bull Eguchi had last night, but this one should be nicer to ride.

Big Cat is a prime example of the difference between the PBR and pro rodeos. He went primarily to PRCA rodeos for two seasons, was selected for the National Finals Rodeo in 2016, and was unridden in 13 PRCA outs. Since coming to the BFTS, he’s given up seven rides in 12 outs. There are riders in the PRCA who would dominate him, but he didn’t draw those guys. At this level, just about every rider would be favored against him. That’s the way it is in the PBR for the bulls. The riders face quality bulls more often, but the bulls also have to face top-tier riders more often.

Gage Gay on 173 Mental Revenge:

Mental Revenge is a decent draw for Gay, and one he’s very familiar with. They’ve met three times previously. Gay won the first match, which was in Big Sky, Montana, way back in 2014. The bull won the second two, bucking Gay off once in 2015 and once in 2016.

Stormy Wing on 922 Modified Clyde:

This is a matchup with serious round win potential. We often see Modified Clyde in the short round, and he’s usually one of the nicest to ride and first picked bulls in short rounds. He’s bucked Wing off before, and that’s not too surprising. This is a fast bull who doesn’t let up so guys can recover, and Wing is prone to making big moves. That said, Modified Clyde has been pretty nice to left-handed riders, especially recently, and if Wing can stay in the groove with him he has a really good chance to pick up a big score here.

Eduardo Aparecido on 112X Intensified Clyde:

Aparecido faces a challenge here. Intensified Clyde isn’t well liked by riders, and he isn’t easy to ride. He’s unridden at the BFTS level, and overall he’s given up just three scores in 27 outs. The one stat that looks to be in Aparecido’s favor is that all three scores went to right-handed riders. The world leader will have to grit this one out if he wants to stay perfect in St. Louis.

Guilherme Marchi on 3028 Stunting Like My Daddy:

This is a veteran bull that is much better for right-handed riders. He is 27-10 against righties, and 22-0 against lefties. He’s also 21-9 against top-tier riders. This is not an easy bull to ride no matter who he faces. He’s small and very fast. However, he is 0-2 against Marchi. They met once in 2014 and once in 2015, and Marchi handled him easily both times.

Chase Outlaw on 058 American Sniper:

This bull has as much BFTS experience as any bull here, and he’s been consistently ridden about 25% of the time. He likes to go to the left, and he’s been better to left-handed guys. To watch this bull, you would think he gets ridden more often, because he looks really nice, but where some bulls throw out stylish moves and flourishes with each jump that make them somewhat easier to ride, this one keeps a lot of pressure on the rider and doesn’t give them much of a window to adjust. Outlaw should be a slight favorite, in this matchup, but American Sniper may be a little harder to ride than he looks.

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