Morning Line: Minneapolis Day 2

By: Slade Long

Luciano de Castro on 86 Chief:

This should be a slam dunk for Castro, who has outdrawn everyone else at this event so far. He fell asleep on his first-round bull and let it get away from him, or he would be in complete control here. Chief is 2-8 against lefties, and weak against high-level riders. If Castro wants to stay in the top 5, he has to reach a point where bulls like this one and his first-round bull are routine wins.

Silvano Alves on 663 Norse God:

Alves took a longshot gamble in round one, and it may not pay off. He kept a 73.5 rather than accepting the re-ride option and trying to get a better score. That puts him in a must-ride situation here on a bull that has never let a right-hander make the whistle. Alves does have a shot here – this bull is rideable, but he’s not going to be easy.

There are a lot of misguided re-ride decisions made at this level at least partly because of the myth that Alves somehow won world titles doing it. He didn’t. When Alves won his world titles, he was riding around 60% of his bulls at the UTB level. If you can do that it doesn’t matter what you do with re-ride options. If your riding percentage is in the 30s, you are better off taking the re-ride option. If you keep the low score, your best shot is to ride all your remaining bulls and place probably 3rd or 4th in the average or lower. Alves hasn’t ridden all his bulls at a UTB level event in about 2 years. Just as a matter of mathematics, riding at around 35% pace means you will seldom go 3-for-3 at this type of event.

Sandro Batista on K83 Fearful:

This is a nice draw for Batista, who was 85.75 in round one. Derek Kolbaba was 91.25 on Fearful at the Teams Finals just last month. Batista is riding well lately – 10 of his last 15 bulls.

Wingson Henrique da Silva on 688 American Gangster:

Silva was 3-for-3 in St. Louis and recorded an outstanding ride away from his hand to win the first round in Minneapolis last night. American Gangster likes the right, which will be away from Silva’s hand, but he’s rideable and can deliver big scores.

Casey Roberts on 827 Hoka Hey:

This is a really good young bull, but he has yet to give up a qualified ride to a right-handed rider. Roberts was in a similar situation in Round 1, as his bull started left then came back into his hand for an 85-point out. It seems like fate wants him to ride at least one bull away from his hand here in Minneapolis, since he keeps drawing bulls that are supposed to do that.

Junior Patrik Souza on 51 Safety Meeting:

Souza bucked off in Round 1, but has a fantastic draw here. Safety Meeting is one of the all-time great money bulls, especially for lefty riders. He’s racked up over 50 outs in the past two seasons, and that’s a lot of miles. This is a very solid, veteran bull, and Souza should get along with him.

Braidy Randolph on 7080 Marciano:

This is a good opportunity for Randolph to get a second bull ridden here. Marciano likes to go left, but he’s pretty nice, and has given up scores to right-handed riders before.

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