The Morning Line: Billings, Day 2

Round 2 Matchups:

Douglas Duncan on 87 Donarado:

Donardo has the chops to be here, but his bucking style should make him one of the easier quality bulls to ride at this level. You can place in the round on him, but he’s not as hard to ride as some of the other bulls that are good enough to place on. He’s got nice, even timing, and Duncan should get along with him even though he typically spins to the right. They have met once before, and Duncan came down in 6.6 seconds, but he should have the edge every time on this bull.

Eduardo Aparecido on 253 Rough ‘Em Up Tuck:

This bull has been ridden six times in nine BFTS outs. He’s beaten the last couple of guys who’ve tried him, but facing this bull is a simple matter, really. He’s very predictable, and very rideable. If Aparecido can stay off his head he will be fine. Most guys here should ride this bull pretty consistently unless they make a big mistake.

Guilherme Marchi on 8358 Guns & Donuts:

Guns & Donuts is 4-5 against right-handed riders, and Marchi is probably the toughest rider he could possible draw here. He’s a good bull that can produce good scores, but if he throws Marchi off it will be a huge upset.

Mason Lowe on 28W Nefarious:

This is another right-handed rider on a bull that is very weak against right-handed riders. Nefarious is 4-7 in his career against righties, although he doesn’t always go to the right. Lowe had him at a Touring Pro Division event last year and didn’t make the whistle, but he’s still got a good chance here.

15/15 Round Matchups:

Cody Nance on 1237 Walk Off:

Walk Off goes to the left, but that usually doesn’t help any left-handed riders not named Joao Ricardo Vieira. This is as tough a bull to ride as there is, and he hasn’t been pampered this year. He’s been to nearly every event, and he’s been up against one great rider after another his entire career. He’s kind of a workaholic of a bull, and Nance will have his hands full here.

Stetson Lawrence on 706 Percolator:

Percolator is always the bull to have in the company he keeps. He’s as good and as flashy a bull as you will see here, and he’s not quite as hard to ride as many of his peers. Lawrence has been on him twice and ridden him once. Being left handed is a big advantage for him here. Percolator is ridden 45 percent of the time by lefties, and he is without question the best bull around with those kind of numbers.

Shane Proctor on 02 Beaver Creek Beau:

Proctor put up an impressive 89.75 points on Beaver Creek Beau in the short round in Seattle. But, as it goes with mutual funds, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No matter how much you figure out about this bull, he’s just as hard the next time because there’s just very little margin for error on him. Right-handed guys do have a slight advantage on him, but they still need to be pretty much mistake free to get it done.

Mike Lee on 35 Spotted Demon:

Really nothing about this bull fits Lee. He should go to the right, and he can be welly. He can carry his head high when he comes around, and a welly bull with his horns waving around makes riders feel like they are about to to be sucked into a giant blender with baseball bats for blades. Spotted Demon doesn’t get a lot of attention and he doesn’t get around much, but he’s one of the better bulls going right now. He has been ridden before, but it’s been a while. There’s more to him than you can see at a glance.

Fabiano Vieira on 978 Little Red Jacket:

Two of the easier bulls in the Nampa 15/15 round were replaced by Spotted Demon and Little Red Jacket, and Little Red Jacket is now the least difficult bull in this round on paper. The catch is that he’s only been ridden by right-handed guys, and Vieira isn’t right handed. This bull is strong enough to test anyone going away from their hand. His timing is good, which will help Vieira, but this won’t be a cake walk.

Nathan Schaper on 81 Mick E. Mouse:

If Schaper can stay on past the three second mark, it will be an improvement on the last two times they met. Schaper came down in exactly 2.96 seconds each time. Mick E. Mouse isn’t a great fit for anyone, because he’s just not rider-friendly at all. You would expect a right- handed guy to be the first to ride him because he goes to the right, but don’t count Schaper out. Taller guys face some physical disadvantages in bull riding, but bulls that have a lot of power and drop aren’t one of them. Having long legs helps on bulls like this.

Ben Jones on 44W Stone Sober:

Stone Sober didn’t look impossible last week in Nampa, and that’s a big improvement. Most of the time he does look nearly impossible, and his record stands at 57-2 now. Getting out of the chute on him is tricky, staying on him for more than a couple of seconds is tricky, and surviving being slammed on the ground can be tricky too. Basically if Stone Sober has his day, he’s not going to ever give up a score to a right-handed rider. He’s not the most consistent bull around, and he doesn’t always have his day, and that is the only meaningful variable here.

Reese Cates on 90 Boot Jack:

Boot Jack is pretty similar to Spotted Demon, in that he can throw a guy to the outside, but he can get welly as the ride goes on. He has a healthy set of horns waving around as well. He’ll go to the right, and no one has had an answer for him this year. He’s made a lot of very good riders look bad.

Kaique Pacheco on 80 Jeremiah:

This is a bull that Cody Lambert doesn’t completely trust, but he looked outstanding in Nampa last week. He’s unridden in 18 career outs, and his trip with J.W. Harris last week was one of his best, and the 45-point bull score was his career high.

J.W. Harris on 1037 Cooper Tires Brown Sugar:

Harris hasn’t had the greatest luck lately, but this bull is as good a fit for him as any he could have drawn here. Brown Sugar typically goes to the right, but he can fake left first, and sometimes he just goes to the left. He will keep the hammer down and won’t let up so long as a rider is on his back, and he won’t be easy for Harris.

Guilherme Marchi on 001 Smooth Operator:

Now unridden in 22 career outs, Smooth Operator has been so efficient this year that if a ride only lasted four seconds, he would still be unridden. He goes to the right, which is good for Marchi, but he’s faced a lot of tough right-handed riders, and has laid waste to them all. Marchi is a strong rider who typically dominates bulls, and if Smooth Operator can turn him inside out the way he’s done everyone else, it may be a while before anyone gets him ridden.

Tanner Byrne on 058 American Sniper:

Sniper is one of the nicer bulls to draw here, and Byrne has a good chance to ride him. Fabiano Vieira won third on him in the 15/15 round in Nampa last week. This is a bull that does everything well, and has great timing to go along with it.

Valdiron de Oliveira on 58X Sweet Pro’s Long John:

These two met in Nampa last week. I probably said then I think this should be a good match, but Oliveira hasn’t done very well in the three times they’ve faced each other. Of the bulls that are in the running for World Champion bull, Long John is probably in third right now behind Mick E. Mouse and Smooth Operator, and he’s more likely to be ridden than either of those two. But, it’s a long time till October, and Long John has a lot of potential.

Matt Triplett on 841 Wicked:

Wicked can do a lot in 8 seconds, and he does it fast. What he won’t do is anything you expect. He’s the trickiest and dirtiest bull out in this round, and if he had opposable thumbs he’d pull a knife to get a guy off his back. He’s not rider-friendly at all, but he’s not impossible either. Triplett is very good at riding bulls jump for jump, and he’s fantastic at making corrections when he gets out of position, and he’ll have to do that a lot to get a score here.

Joao Ricardo Vieira on 850 I’m a Gangster Too:

It’s a little surprising these two haven’t met before, given that they’ve been in the same place quite often. Gangster goes to the right, but he’s been ridden seven times by left-handed guys, and never by a righty. He had what may have been the best trip of his career last week with Eduardo Aparecido, and if he repeats that here, it will be difficult for Vieira to beat him. This is a bull that doesn’t tolerate mistakes at all, and Vieira will have to make a perfect ride away from his hand to get the job done.


Follow Slade Long on Twitter @Probullstats

© 2015 PBR Inc. All rights reserved.